CMHC: Vancouver Needs 5,000–7,000 Extra Homes Per Year as Canada’s Construction Pivot to Rentals Masks an Ownership Crunch

CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, released September 14, estimates Canada needs between 417,000 and 469,000 annual housing starts over the next decade to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. Current projections sit at roughly 231,000 starts per year, leaving an annual gap of 187,000 to 238,000 homes. The agency warns that the current housing downturn is masking a deeper structural problem: while purpose-built rental construction now accounts for two-thirds of apartment starts in key markets, condominium and ground-oriented construction has weakened sharply in Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal. These ownership-oriented homes have historically supplied the secondary rental market, meaning the rental boom today could still leave future renters and buyers with fewer total housing options.

The shift is most dramatic in Toronto, where the City saw only 156 condominium units break ground in the first half of 2026 compared to an annual average of about 7,000 over the previous decade. Ground-oriented freehold starts there have hit record lows after more than two decades of decline, while rental apartment starts jumped 82 per cent year-over-year and surpassed condo starts for the first time since 1994. In Vancouver, the report identifies a more modest but still material gap of 5,000 to 7,000 additional starts needed annually. CMHC notes that government financing programs, municipal incentives and the conversion of some proposed condo projects to rentals have helped drive the rental pipeline, but the agency cautions that insufficient ownership construction poses the greater long-term risk when population growth and incomes eventually recover.