Bank of Canada Hikes to 2.5%: Vancouver Buyers Face First Rate Increase in Three Years as Borrowing Costs Climb Again

On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, marking the first change to the benchmark in a full year and the first upward move since July 2023. Governor Tiff Macklem defended the decision to reporters, acknowledging bluntly that the hike is “not going to feel good immediately” but arguing it is necessary to prevent surging oil and gas prices—driven by the Iran war and broader Middle East conflict—from spreading into wider consumer inflation. The central bank noted that consumer inflation sat at 3.1 per cent in September and is expected to climb to roughly 3.5 per cent by year-end as elevated fuel costs raise production and transportation expenses across the supply chain.

The rate increase breaks a holding pattern that had kept borrowing costs at 2.25 per cent since October 2025, when the Bank last trimmed rates from 2.5 per cent. While financial markets and economists largely anticipated Wednesday’s move, the policy shift carries particular weight for Vancouver’s housing market because it reverses the downward momentum that had briefly improved affordability for qualified buyers. The Bank’s updated forecasts now project Canadian economic growth of just one per cent this year, followed by two per cent in 2027 and 2028, but it stressed that these outlooks are clouded by “considerable uncertainty” surrounding Canada-U.S. trade tensions and the ongoing geopolitical instability that continues to pressure global energy markets.